Travel and Tourism

Let us assume that despite recent setbacks, we somehow manage to reduce consumption and energy use, and we successfully avoid the most serious consequences of climate change. During the next 20 to 30 years, we dramatically reduce carbon emissions and transition to a sustainable way of living. Certainly our lives would likely be very different in such a future society, but what about travel and tourism? Would tourism still exist, and what form would it take?

First, let's look at travel on a national or regional scale. In Europe today, there are already highly efficient rail lines connecting countries together, and most countries have extensive internal rail networks. Even the UK is connected to Continental Europe via the Chunnel passage. This means it is already possible for many people to travel by train, either for business or holiday. Some of the trains travel at very high speeds, often over 200 kilometres per hour. Indeed, this is a very popular method of travel in Europe, with ridership growing rapidly.

In North America, however, it is a different story. Rail travel has been stagnating for decades, and there has been a drop off in ridership as more and more people switch to cars or air travel. Rail infrastructure is also out of date, and sometimes in poor repair. Many lines have become disused and overgrown. While Canada does have a cross-country rail line connecting most major cities, it is also relatively inefficient, and many communities are not served. The US has 10 times the population and large areas of the country have no passenger rail service at all.

Clearly in a sustainable future, this would need to be reversed. Rail could be modernized and expanded, allowing more options for travel, while also helping the environment and creating jobs. After 20 or 30 years, there is no reason why North America could not have a world class rail system, allowing passengers to travel virtually anywhere without using cars or airplanes. This would put them on the same level as Europe, where rail travel is a real, practical alternative.

As far as regional travel and tourism go, things would not be terribly different from today in a sustainable future. Canadians could still visit Florida in the winter, they would just take the train instead of driving or flying. Americans could travel across the country to various tourism destinations easily and conformably as well, even if they don't own cars and can't afford air travel. Travel for business trips would also be relatively unhindered, especially if high speed rail were to be used. When the delays at airports are factored in, little time would be lost compared to today, and often time might actually be saved.

Of course, we should expect some of this travel to be limited to some degree in the future. In the past few years, high oil prices have led to an increase in airfares, and recently the recession has cut budgets. This has resulted in the wider use of technology such as videoconferencing to replace face to face meetings. It is likely this will continue and be more strongly supported in a sustainable future. However, there will always be a need for people to meet face to face, and this will continue, though primarily via rail.

It is also possible that the average person will be less able to afford frequent vacations. This could result in fewer people taking holidays, but perhaps taking longer holidays instead. Economic growth will likely be constrained in the future, which could mean that in order to achieve full employment, people may work fewer hours and have more time off during the year, similar to Europe. This could lead to more leisure time and less stress, making people relatively happier than they are today, even though they may not have the same level of material wealth we have grown accustomed to.

International travel, on the other hand, is much more dependant on the use of airplanes. It is likely that the availability of air travel will significantly decrease, and the price increase, in the future, whether or not it is a sustainable one. In the past decade, we have already seen many airlines go out of business, the price of fares rise, and services and amenities be curtailed. This trend is likely to continue for several reasons, meaning that air travel may no longer be a service widely available to the average person.

One reason is peak oil. As the supply of oil begins to decline, prices will rise rapidly, which also impacts aviation fuel, of course. Just a couple years ago we saw oil approach $150 a barrel, and many airlines found they could simply not operate profitably at such prices. (Indeed some airlines survived only because they had hedged against the price of oil.) Yet, for now, oil supplies are on a relative plateau. When they begin to decline, we can expect to see much higher prices and perhaps shortages. It is unclear that airlines can survive as commercial enterprises in such an environment. Small airlines, targeted at businesses and the rich may retain a market, but mass market aviation will be dead.

The above is likely to happen whether or not we transition to a sustainable future. If we do, however, this means we will choose to dramatically reduce carbon emissions, and airlines, of course, generate a massive amount of emissions. The limits we impose could take the form of carbon taxes, caps, or other types of legislation. Whatever the form, this is likely to put significant constraints on airlines.

So, is this the end of international travel and tourism? In one sense, yes. The average family will no longer be able to jet off to the Caribbean or Europe once a year. The airlines will no longer be there, and they wouldn't be able to afford it in any case. This doesn't mean the end of international travel, however, it will likely instead mean a return to a slower form of travel, more common a hundred years ago.

Before airplanes, of course, people had to travel by ship. This was obviously much slower, but it could also be a relaxing experience, considered part of a holiday, rather than just a means of transportation. There could be a resurgence in this type of travel. Because it takes longer, vacations would need to be longer, and it would make sense to spend more time at the destination. One week vacations are out. This is also not the type of travel one could take every year. But with more time off, people could travel internationally on occasion, and still see parts of the world far from home.

With limited fossil fuels, we could even see a return of large sailing vessels, perhaps made from wood instead of iron, with engines used only for emergencies or navigation close to land. Another possibility is that we could witness the rebirth of the airship. While much slower than jet planes, these are much more energy efficient and can be used for travel not just across the ocean, but across large continents.

In one sense, this would seem to make us more disconnected from each other as a world community. However, unlike a hundred years ago, we now have a global communications system. People can remain connected and engaged through the Internet, so that we would not seem as distant and isolated as in the past.

If we do manage to reach a sustainable future, we will need to live differently, and travel and tourism will take different forms. Yet, this is not necessarily a negative thing. High speed rail can allow us to travel within our countries or regions as readily as we can today, and as many people already do. International travel may become more rare, but it would also regain some of the sense of wonder and delight of ages past. If we learn to live without destroying our planet, our lives will indeed be different, but they need not be worse. They may even be better and happier ones, especially with the knowledge that we will be leaving our children and grandchildren a healthier world, instead of a dying one.